NWS Milwaukee Forecast Discussion
044
FXUS63 KMKX 051144
AFDMKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
544 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Chances for scattered drizzle/rain today with little rainfall
accumulations.
- Drier and cooler conditions Friday into Saturday.
- Period of gale force gusts expected Thursday afternoon into
Friday evening across Lake Michigan. Gales are initially
expected to develop across the northern third of the lake and
expand southward with time.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued 545 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026
Not much change from the previous forecast as patchy drizzle to
widely scattered showers are possible ahead of the cold front
as it pushes through this afternoon. southwesterly winds ahead
of the front will brief ease and shift east before ramping up
behind the frontal passage later this afternoon and remaining
breezy overnight.
Wagner
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1231 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026
Current Overnight through Friday Night:
Low pressure located over the UP and Lake Superior will pull ENE
through the overnight hours. Low level moisture and weak omega
will allow for scattered drizzle/light rain to continue in the
meantime.
During the mid to late morning hours today, the departing low
will drag a cold front over southern WI. Breezy southerlies will
persist until the front arrives, with a brief westerly shift and
lull in winds speeds, and then a shift to breezy northerly winds
behind the front, and a CAA regime Thursday afternoon. Widely
scattered showers will be possible along the front, but lower
dewpoints will quickly move in behind the cold front, ending
rain chances by Thursday evening over all of southern WI.
Thursday night, the CAA will usher in a colder air mass, and
overnight lows will dip into the mid 30s. Friday looks to be dry
with a mix of sun and clouds as high pressure moves into the
region, but the colder air mass will only support highs in the
upper 40s. Lows Friday night will be in the mid to upper 20s.
CMiller
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued 1238 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026
Saturday through Wednesday:
A prolonged period of high pressure is expected to set up for
the extended forecast, leading to dry, quiet weather. A building
ridge over the plains will allow for a gradual warming trend
through the weekend, with highs near 50 on Saturday, reaching
the low 60s by Monday and Tuesday.
A dry cold front then looks possible mid next week, bumping
temps back down into the 50s.
CMiller
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued 545 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026
Prevailing MVFR ceilings between 1-3 kft continue across much
of southern WI this morning with a few pockets of IFR toward the
Driftless region while pockets of VFR along the Lakeshore.
Expect these types of ceilings to continue through the afternoon
into the early evening before lifting behind the cold frontal
passage. As the front slides across the area expect patchy mist
this morning with more scattered drizzle and possibly light rain
showers just ahead of the cold front this afternoon.
Otherwise, breezy southwest winds will gradually ease through
the morning briefly turning west late morning into early this
afternoon before ramping up with gusts to 25 kt and turning
north to northwesterly behind the front for the evening.
Wagner
&&
.MARINE...
Issued 545 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026
Low pressure will continue to track from Lake Superior through
the James Bay Region and into Quebec today. Breezy southwesterly
winds with gusts up to 30 knots will persist this morning
before increasing and briefly turning westerly this afternoon as
the associated cold front slides across Lake Michigan. Then
stronger winds shift to the north-northwest behind the cold
front this evening/tonight. Will see gusts increase to gale
force during this time and continue into Friday as high pressure
begins to build down across the Upper Midwest. Thus a gale
warning remains in effect for these strong winds as they work
north to south down Lake Michigan late this afternoon through
Friday afternoon. May see gale conditions end sooner for
northern portion of Lake Michigan. In addition to the winds,
cold air moving into the region Friday and warmer Lake temps,
cannot rule out an isolated waterspout or two for southeast part
of the Lake Michigan. Then high pressure will build over the
Upper Great Lakes overnight Friday through the weekend bringing
lighter northwesterly winds.
Wagner
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-
LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...noon Thursday
to 6 PM Friday.
Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 6 PM
Friday.
&&
$$
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