NWS Milwaukee Forecast Discussion
845
FXUS63 KMKX 211808
AFDMKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
108 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm temperatures are expected today across most of the area,
as gusty southwest winds develop. Highs may rise into the mid
60s to mid 70s over most of the area.
- Some chances (around 10-20 percent) for light rain to occur
later Saturday night into Sunday morning. Cooler temperatures
and gusty winds are expected Sunday morning.
- Chances (mainly 20 to 30 percent) for precipitation returns to
the area for middle to later portions of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued 100 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026
Tonight through Monday night:
Early to mid evening we will start to see the low pressure
system push through with the frontal passage turning southwest
winds to the north by midnight for most of southern WI. We
likely remain dry overnight for most of southern WI though
central parts of WI may see some light rain showers at times
though models try to keep the CWA largely dry. Into Sunday
morning chances primarily across the eastern half of the CWA
will increase for rain showers. It is difficult to project how
expansive shower activity will be at this time but CAMs show at
least some. The problem with potential seems in large part
driven by dry air issues aloft. Models largely show a deep layer
of moderately dry air from 700-900mb. Some models show this
being overcome, some do not, but based on the CAMs there seems
to be enough moisture at times to squeeze out a few showers at
the very least with more widespread shower activity still
possible. The widespread activity is going to be largely
dependent on if there is enough forcing for a long enough period
of time above 700mb to moisten up the lower levels.
The precip chances will largely be restricted to the morning
hours with the system and any remnant moisture pushing out as
higher pressure pushes in behind this system. The cold front
will be fairly strong temperature wise as lows Sunday night will
be back into the mid 20s. Monday is then expected to be largely
clear and quiet with high pressure moving directly overhead.
Light and variable winds expected with highs ranging from the
low 40s closer to the lake to the low 50s in western parts of
the CWA. High pressure will push out Monday night as a weak
front approaches from the northwest associated with clouds
that will begin pushing in. The clouds will moderate low
temperatures overnight.
Kuroski
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued 100 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026
Tuesday through Saturday:
Tuesday through Thursday chances will begin to increase as
shortwave activity increases with increased moisture in the mid-
levels. Chances Tuesday look largely to stay north of the CWA as
a weak front trails through the region with drier air in the
lower levels pushing in behind it but a few showers cannot be
ruled out especially given moist midlevels and decent WAA. Lots
of uncertainty into Tuesday night/Wednesday as another system
pushes in from the west. There looks to be continued battles
with dry air and forcing is not expected to be substantial but
decent WAA and likely enough forcing should allow for at least
some precip during this period.
The best chance for precip next week looks to be Thursday
related to a fairly strong surface low and upper level shortwave
swinging through. However, there are increased concerns on
whether the timing of this system pushing through will limit the
precip potential because it is likely to feature storm chances
along the warm front but the warm front may be too far east by
initiation time. We may still see precip from the north side of
the system in the region of WAA aloft but much of the precip may
miss the area. This is the day to watch for storm chances,
however, as slowed timing of the system may yield storms into
the CWA but at this time the best chances remain in northern IL.
In any case things would be expected to dry out behind the
front Friday as strong high pressure pushes in. Next weekend
has trended drier in recent model runs due to strong surface
high pressure pushing in and dry air in the upper levels likely
limiting overall precip potential.
On the temperature front, the middle of next week looks to be
on the warmer side as the jet remains north of the region in
addition to the impact of the large scale ridging in the the
southwest US. Best chance for a widespread return to more normal
temperatures comes after the frontal passage Thursday. Onshore
lake winds may keep northeast CWA cooler during the warm stretch
but the predominant temperatures are expected to be above
normal.
Kuroski
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued 100 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026
Breezy south to southwest winds this afternoon is expected with
FEW to SCT high clouds. As the front pushes in this evening
expected BKN high clouds to push in with northerly winds behind
the front. VFR conditions expected through much of tonight but
MVFR CIGS will likely push in across most of southern WI for a
period late tonight through the late morning to early afternoon
before they rise to VFR and then clear out through the
afternoon. A brief period of fog will be possible across east
central WI later tonight but looks unlikely at this time.
Otherwise breezy north winds Sunday with a slight chance for a
shower in the morning hours.
Kuroski
&&
.MARINE...
Issued 100 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026
Low pressure around 29.5 inches has developed across the north
central US today and will continue pushing east across the lake
tonight. As this low passes south of the lake winds will shift
to the north and northeast and become gusty later tonight into
Sunday morning. A few northerly gales are possible Sunday,
mainly over southern portions of the lake. High pressure around
30.4 inches should then bring decreasing winds for Monday
through Monday night. Into Tuesday winds may pick up a bit from
the south as the high exits and weak front passes over the
region. Winds over the lake will remain largely from the south
through Wednesday as broad low pressure approaches from the
west. Chances for precipitation on Tuesday and again on
Wednesday though primarily for northern parts of the lake.
In the nearshore southwest winds may advect into the nearshore
waters today with gusts up to 25 knots and thus a Small Craft
Advisory is in effect until 1z tonight. Another Small Craft is
also now in effect for breezy north winds across the lake Sunday
morning through Sunday evening with gusts up to 30 knots and
wave height from 6-9 feet.
Kuroski
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 8 PM
Saturday.
Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...7 AM
Sunday to 1 AM Monday.
&&
$$
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