NWS Milwaukee Forecast Discussion
275 FXUS63 KMKX 150349 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 949 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures are expected to remain above normal through early next week with daily highs in the mid 50s to upper 50s. - Next chance of rain looks to be later Saturday/Sunday into early next week. Gusty winds along with cooler temperatures will accompany this system. - Active pattern with precipitation chances and possibly even wintry weather for the middle of next week. && .UPDATE... Issued 949 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Localized bands of drizzle continues over ern WI and within the cyclonic flow of the departing low pressure area now over Lake Erie. The low level moisture and stratus is expected to remain in the boundary layer and below the strengthening subsidence inversion through Friday as upper ridging builds into the region. Gehring && .SHORT TERM... Issued 312 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Tonight through Friday night: While the surface low and upper-level trough continue to gradually depart the area, lower ceilings on the backside are progged to linger across southern WI tonight. This will help keep temps a bit warmer with overnight lows dropping into the 40s and into the upper 40s. There will be a potential for western areas to cool off a bit more if the leading edge of the subsidence form the incoming surface high helps break up the clouds a bit. However, confidence remains lower and have leaned toward the warmer lows for now. Otherwise, drier conditions are expected for Friday as high pressure slides across the middle Mississippi River Valley and into the Great Lakes. Upper-level ridge axis will build across the region at the same time and result in milder/above normal temps and light winds. The main question will be is if the cloud cover will clear for Friday or not. Some models (RAP and HRRR) suggest enough low-level moisture will linger and keep the blanket of clouds around which would tamp down temps a bit more in the lower 50s to upper 40s, but if there are some breaks aided by the subsidence from the high/ridge then could see temps creep into the mid to even upper 50s as suggested by the spread between other HREF members as well as GFS soundings. So will be something to keep an eye on for Friday and how long it may last as this will be the primary driver on temps. Wagner && .LONG TERM... Issued 312 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Saturday through Thursday: High pressure and upper-level ridge axis will gradually slide east on Saturday bring a return of southerly flow. Meanwhile the upstream shortwave trough trekking across the northern Plains will follow right behind it. Accompanying low pressure looks to lift across the Dakotas through the day Saturday and into MN overnight Saturday into Sunday. While the bulk of the day will be dry even with the leading edge of WAA, the increasing rain chances arrive as early as Saturday evening ahead of the cold front. While there is still some debate on timing this forcing and moisture will arrive and impact our CWA, still looking at a quick shot of rain either saturday evening or overnight/early Sunday. Otherwise, the main focus in the extended shifts toward the active pattern beginning early next week. While there continues to be run to run model differences, the consensus shows for an active pattern. Early half of the work week long range models are coming into a consensus with a shortwave trough lifting across the Plains and weakening into the Upper-Midwest. This would bring another shot at rain with the early week system. Behind this early week system, models are hinting at colder air to dig across the central CONUS as a deepening longwave trough develops. This mid week system will need to be monitored as this could bring our first bout of wintry weather. However, there is a lot of model discrepancy between the GEFS and ENS camps this far out and a wide range of possibilities, but it will need to be monitored over the coming days. Wagner && .AVIATION... Issued 949 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Localized drizzle and Cigs below 1 kft will continue into the early morning hours over ern WI before ending. Otherwise widespread MVFR Cigs well into Fri with some scattering of clouds especially over south central WI for Fri afternoon. Areas of MVFR Cigs may linger into Fri nt. Gehring && .MARINE... Issued 949 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Low pressure around 29.9 inches near Detroit this evening will continue to move away while a weak ridge of high pressure over Minnesota and Iowa will move across Lake Michigan Friday night. Light to modest northerly winds will continue tonight and Friday then light and variable Friday night. An additional low pressure system is forecast to develop and lift across the Dakotas and northern MN later Saturday and into Ontario on Sunday. Thus breezy southerly winds will develop on Saturday becoming southwest on Sunday. A cold front will then shift winds to west to northwest Sunday night. Wagner && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee