NWS Milwaukee Forecast Discussion
547
FXUS63 KMKX 012004
AFDMKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
304 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Widespread frost and below freezing temps expected tonight. A
Freeze Warning is in effect for most of southern WI, with a
Frost Advisory in effect over far southeast WI.
- Scattered rain/sleet showers will continue into the early
evening over southern Wisconsin.
- More active pattern early next week with increased showers and
storm chances Sunday through midweek. A short warm up is
expected Sunday and Monday with highs in the 60s and 70s,
respectively.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued 222 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026
Tonight through Saturday night:
A scattered rain/sleet showers will continue into the early
evening as PVA moves through the area in association with a
trough aloft. Tonight, clouds are expected to clear over much of
central to south central Wisconsin as subsidence builds in
behind the trough, allowing temperatures to tank into the upper
20s to around 30. A Freeze Warning is in effect tonight into
tomorrow morning for most of southern Wisconsin for widespread
frost. Some clouds are expected to linger tonight over far
southeast Wisconsin, which may prevent temperatures from
dropping down to near 30, but still hover around freezing. A
Frost Advisory has been issued for Milwaukee, Kenosha, and
Racine Counties.
Tomorrow, a weak surface ridge is expected to pass over the
state. There may be widespread sunshine in the morning, before
daytime heating causes widespread cu to form in the afternoon.
Highs will be in the mid to upper 50s. Frost headlines are not
expected Saturday night into Sunday, as warm advection is
expected driven by southwesterly winds Saturday night.
CMiller
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued 226 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026
Sunday through Friday:
An active pattern then sets up Sunday into the middle of next
week as northwest flow will allow for multiple troughs to
rotate through the area. Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon,
WAA and a weak sfc trough will rotate through, bringing rain
chances (~30% PoPs). More warm advection is then expected
behind the Sunday trough as another low approaches from the
northwest Sunday night into Monday.
On Monday, the low is expected to drag a cold front through the
area primarily during the late afternoon and into the evening.
GFS model soundings would suggest some potential for hail and
gusty winds with any strong storms along the front, provided
surface instability is realized. However, the GFS, ECMWF, RRFS
and NAM all disagree on the timing of the front, which would
have huge bearing on the strong storm potential. Following the
front, a cooler pattern is then expected mid to late week next
week. The reservoir of cold air aloft will contribute to
continuing chances for showery precip until the trough flattens
late next week.
CMiller
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued 229 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026
Scattered rain/sleet showers will continue into this evening
before dissipating. Subsidence should then allow MVFR to VFR
ceilings to become SCT along the lakeshore and FEW inland. Winds
will be light and variable overnight.
VFR conditions then continue tomorrow, with daytime cu expected
in the afternoon. Winds will remain light, and come around from
northwesterly to southwesterly through the day.
CMiller
&&
.MARINE...
Issued 246 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026
Winds will generally remain light and variable to northerly
tonight into the first half of tomorrow as high pressure sinks
southeast over Lake Michigan. Winds are then expected to become
light and variable for a time again Saturday afternoon before
turning southerly Saturday night. Winds then grow breezy
Saturday night into Sunday as low pressure approaches the lake,
dragging a cold front over it. Winds will only become westerly
behind the front for a time, returning to southwesterly on
Monday ahead of another stronger low.
CMiller
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Freeze Warning...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057-
WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ067-
WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070...midnight Saturday to 8 AM Saturday.
Frost Advisory...WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072...midnight Saturday to 8
AM Saturday.
LM...None.
&&
$$
Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee
Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee