515
FXUS63 KMKX 150242
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
942 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and a few storms may move into areas west of
  Madison later tonight into Sunday morning. Chances for showers
  and storms linger in south central to east central Wisconsin
  Sunday afternoon and night, though confidence in this is low
  to moderate.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms at times Monday into
  next week, with the better chances Tuesday into Wednesday
  night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 940 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

No major changes to the going forecast, aside from a thin broken
line of rain showers tracking eastward through east central WI
(forced by a weak 700mb thermal trough). This should track east
from Fond du Lac / Sheboygan / Washington / Ozaukee counties
over the next 3 hours, with any rain barely reaching the ground
due to evaporation (only planning to add 25% precip chances
unless surface obs warrant higher values).

Models resolve the existing clusters of thunderstorms over
eastern MN / IA diving south overnight and largely dissipating
towards midnight. Then from late tonight into early Sunday
morning, additional storm clusters redevelop in the same area,
nudging a little further east this time into southwestern WI.
Precip chances remain at 25-45% west of a Monroe to Green Lake
WI line late tonight through much of Sunday.

Sheppard

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 249 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Tonight through Sunday night:

CAMs suggest that scattered showers and a few storms may develop
later tonight in southern Minnesota or northern Iowa, and may
shift into areas west of Madison overnight and into south
central Wisconsin Sunday morning. This would be driven by modest
but focused 850 mb warm air advection. Kept 30 to 50 percent
PoPs mainly west of Madison for this possibility, with smaller
chances over the rest of south central Wisconsin. Instability is
rather weak, so would expect more shower activity than storms.
Confidence remains low to moderate here, so PoPs will need
adjusting as we get closer to this period.

Otherwise, quiet conditions are forecast elsewhere tonight into
Sunday morning. Lows in the middle 50s east to around 60 far
west are expected.

More showers and storms may develop Sunday afternoon with peak
heating across southern Minnesota and/or northern Iowa, as the
focused warm air advection tries to set up there. It tries to
extend into west central and northern Wisconsin Sunday night,
with possibly more showers and storms developing there.

Again, there is uncertainty with what and where any showers and
storms occur, and some CAMs and synoptic scale models keep the
forecast area dry or mostly dry, as the more focused 850 mb warm
air advection remains to the west and northwest. Kept 20 to 40
percent chances for now in the forecast from south central to
east central Wisconsin, and will need further adjustments once
trends become more clear.

Highs Sunday should reach into the upper 70s to lower 80s
inland, with cooler 60s near Lake Michigan with onshore winds.
Dew points should climb into the lower 60s inland, so it should
feel a little more humid.

Wood

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 249 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Monday through Saturday:

Warmer and more humid conditions should move into the area
Monday, though southeast winds near the lake should keep those
areas cooler in the afternoon. Models seem to be showing a
warm/stationary front west to east across northern Wisconsin
Monday/Monday night, with possibly some weak differential CVA
pushing through the area Monday. Not much upward vertical
motion near the surface during this time, so not sure if there
will be enough for showers and storms to develop. Kept 30 to 40
percent PoPs going for now, as instability increases but deep
layer bulk shear remains weak. Confidence remains low, so
adjustments to the PoPs will be needed.

Models now seem to bring a cold front southeast toward the area
Tuesday afternoon and evening, with the front possibly being
over or southeast of the area by Wednesday as the surface low
moves northeast along it. Still a lot of uncertainty here as
well with how things will evolve, so kept NBM PoPs going for
now. Still have 60 percent or higher PoPs generally later
Tuesday night into Wednesday. This period should have better
deep layer bulk shear and enough instability for the possibility
of stronger storms, but the timing and placement of all of these
features will dictate the risk. Will continue to watch this
period.

Ensembles are suggesting warm air advection on south to
southwest winds later in the week bringing very warm and humid
conditions into the area by Saturday and perhaps lasting for a
few days. Will continue to monitor temperature trends here.

Wood

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 940 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Nearly calm / light east to northeast winds expected overnight,
with light east to southeast winds for Sunday. A broken line of
very weak rainshowers currently tracking east through east-
central WI over the next 3 hours. Otherwise, dry weather and
VFR through tonight.

A 25-45% chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms in
southwestern WI late overnight through Sunday, mainly west of a
Monroe to Green Lake WI line. Scattered to broken clouds over
25,000 ft expected Sunday, with the shower / storm activity to
the west forming VFR ceilings generally over 4,500 ft (though
some brief periods of MVFR ceilings cannot be ruled out.

Sheppard

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 249 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

High pressure around 30.3 inches along the Ontario and Quebec
border will keep winds primarily easterly to northeasterly
through the rest of the weekend. Weak low pressure around 29.9
inches in southern Illinois will push east tonight into the
Ohio River Valley and weaken on Sunday. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms are forecast at times Monday into next week, as
the Ontario high pressure system weakens and low pressure
approaches the region from the Central Plains.

Wood

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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NWS MKX Office Area Forecast Discussion